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Fair sailing for Bangkok condos

Nina Suebsukcharoen Bangkok Post
FINGERS CROSSED: Apisit Limlomwongse is hoping for the best.

FINGERS CROSSED: Apisit Limlomwongse is hoping for the best.

Of the four scenarios forecast for the Bangkok condominium market this year, the most likely outcome is a fair performance, says Apisit Limlomwongse, managing director of Nexus Property Consultants.

The company's Bangkok condominium market forecast for 2009 shows that, at best the average supply of approximately 20,000 units a year since 2004 will decrease to 10,000. Demand too is foreseen to drop from an average of around 20,000 units a year to 10,000.

"Overall this scenario is not that bad. It's balanced and the outcome by year-end would be an increase in occupancy from 81% to 83% with the average price rising a little by 1.5%," says Mr Apisit.

But a fair outcome, which Mr Apisit sees as most likely, would be for a 40% drop in supply, dragging occupancy down from 81% to 80%. As the market starts realising that performance is deteriorating, prices too would slip by 2.1%.

"This scenario is most likely because 40% of the supply might vanish this year," he said. "We foresee that while developers would be launching projects this year, the total won't be substantial and the overall supply would drop from around 20,000 to maybe just 12,000 units. Demand would drop from 20,000 to 8,000."

Mr Apisit says that a good outcome is still possible because performance depends on many factors including economic policies that produce sound results, and a stable political environment.


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